Turns out that not only did I peg the Oscar wrong, but it's a movie I'd heard almost nothing about in either promotion or discussions: Moonlight. Turns out the whole LGBTBBQ thing was a bigger deal this year than women in STEM, as both dealt with "the struggles of black people" - though arguably Hidden Figures dealt more with overcoming systemic racism.
At least I was not so far off as to have Hell or High Water, Hacksaw Ridge, Manchester By The Sea, Arrival, or La La Land win.
First of all, they were all white.
Hell or High Water, despite the OWS - style core theme, was also about a white man doing whatever it took to take care of his kids. No way in hell that would win.
If you squint I'm sure a liberal could find anti-war, pro-pacifist themes in Hacksaw, but it's still about a white guy being a hero. And, well, Mel Gibson is involved.
Manchester? White guy stepping up to be a dad.
Arrival had woman scientist saving the world but compared to black women saving the space program and overcoming racism?
La La Land was a bunch of congratulatory Hollywood myth backpatting, but despite good music and being popular wasn't going to win out against the struggle of African-Americans or LGBBQ types.
I plan on seeing Hacksaw at some point, Hell or High Water was pretty good, could care less for the rest.